Barack Mondale

My first Presidential election (or the first one in which I was eligible to vote) was 1984. I voted for Walter Mondale, who got annhialated, losing 49 states. Sometimes, I wonder about whether the counsel I got from an NYU College Democrats volunteer at the beginning of that year was right.

The New York primary was two or three days after my 18th birthday that year, as I recall. Realizing this, in either late '83 or January '84 I noticed the NYU College Democrats doing a voter registration drive in the student union building on LaGuardia Place and I explained my situation to the young man...ergo, could I register now, and preserve my right to vote on Primary Day? No, I was told. As a result, I could not and did not vote for Gary Hart. Mondale won, and he was toast.

Let's not underestimate the importance of the 1984 election. Though Reagan had won a convincing electoral college majority four years earlier, his margin in the popular vote was not all that impressive and there had been a major recession in his first term. James Watt had been sent packing; the administration had taken its flak for trying to declare ketchup a vegetable and homeless people were everywhere. Would Reagan have won re-election regardless of who the Democratic nominee was? Probably. But just suppose if a Gary Hart (or another) managed to muster even the electoral vote total of an '88 Dukakis or '96 Dole. Would Democrats have merely been content to hold hearings on Iran Contra? Would we have forgotten the Prez laying a wreath for the butchers of Bitburg? Would Reagan have even nominated Bork (which planted the seed of the idea that his successor could get away with Thomas)? Even the "rehabilitated" post-'06 Democrats concede that impeachment of the current Bush is "off the table" before taking office, and fund and re-fund the war. Now the high ground they claimed on spending is compromised as they were complicit in giving $600 handouts so people can pay off credit card debt.

The point is, the "majority party" status Democrats enjoyed from the New Deal was challenged by Nixon, but eviscerated by Reagan. They didn't have to win in '84 to get off the ropes. But with Mondale, they were Apollo Creed against Ivan Drago. Thanks to Mondale, Clinton couldn't win on a dysfunctional health care system, depression-like economic conditions outside of the major cities and a foreign policy checked by an OPEC veto power. He needed the death penalty and Sister Souljah.

Now, the media, which has soft-footed Barack Obama for four years, has crossed the line into institutional cheerleader for the man who talks about "change" but won't change his specific-bereft stump speech. Forget about whether this is a Karl Rove plot (I wouldn't rule it out, but that's not the point). Forget the fact that in an earlier posting I noted an unpleasant encounter with some of his earliest "true believers" who felt compelled to call me a racist and a Nazi for supporting a reliable fascist like Joe Biden. That could be anything from too much alcohol to whispers from others telling them that I wasn't a Yankee fan.

What it is about is the rush to a failing 11th grade civics essay about how Obama is more "electable" than Hillary. Yes, we know there are people who would drool to vote against Hillary. It's the reason I did not support her in the first place (and a reason why I would have gone with Edwards last Tuesday if only he'd lasted a few more days). But the undeniable facts are these: The "Hillary haters" all are out in the open, they're not going to grow in number, and not even the RNC needs to waste its resources on finding other reasons to "hate" her. Maybe Diebold will cook something up, but the facts are, the people who won't vote for Hillary under any circumstances is not going to go up.

Now let's turn to Obama, his middle name (which I'd wager about 90 per cent of the country doesn't know but will have whistling in their heads when Zell Miller or someone of his ilk hisses it throughout a 20-minute prime time missive in Minneapolis this August), and the "M" word ("Muslim" or "Madrassa", take your pick). Yes, this was supposedly "shot down" before Iowa and New Hampshire, but that's the point - it was done at a time when those citizens willing to grudgingly to give 10 minutes of their time to presidential politics after Labor Day '08 were still watching "Lost" reruns on slow Britney days. Kerry had to deal with "swift boaters" every race he ran for the Senate before '04; it did not stop him from standing toe-to-toe with a wartime President four months out.

Notice that I did not point out the fact that Obama speaks (eloquently) a lot without saying anything - a valid criticism. Or that he has a tendency to vote "present" on contentious issues - another valid criticism. And I did not point out the fact that Obama is at least partly African American - a completely invalid criticism.

The potential pool of Obama-loathers is vast, and it will fill up. Very quickly.

If Hillary is the nominee, admittedly, McCain likely wins by a margin between what Bush won over Kerry and what Bush "won" over Gore. But if the economy continues to tank, she CAN win.

If Obama is the nominee, he likely loses everything except Vermont.

49 states.

Another Mondale.